Author Archive for DarkSoju

Space Cadets wish SK Pres Happy Anniversary

The DPRK are ratching up the rhetoric against South Korea and specifically against hard-line president, Lee Myung Bak, on the first anniversary of his election.

As an anniversary present, the Space Cadets in the DPRK are preparing to send an improved (working?) Taepodong-2 into space.

Oh, and by-the-way, they have 180,000 spec ops forces (up from 120,000) ready to crash the party.

It’s intriging to compare this development with those of the Iranian satellite launch on Feb 2, 2009.  Apparently, their hope is that UN sanctions won’t apply to missile launches that are declared to be part of a civilian space program.

Huawei 3G Cell Phones in DPRK

Huawei 3G Phone

Huawei 3G Phone

It looks like Orascom Telecom is using localized Korean versions of 3G phones from China’s Huawei.  According to this article, the service has attracted 6,000 applications in 2 weeks.  There is no mention of the approval process.

In addition to the expected calling charges, the handsets will run around $600USD.

“The price is quite high,” said Naguib Sawiris, Chairman of Orascom Telecom. “The government has put a big tax on handsets and it’s making it difficult for everyone to participate but we are having negotiations with the government to reduce that.”

There is no mention of the data services that will be available.  Certainly, much of the appeal to go to an advanced 3G network is lost when there are no data services.  But, apparently, there will be all the tools and goodies for officials to eavesdrop on calls - perhaps that’s the real appeal for this network from the government’s perspective.

Ora Bank

Orascom Telecom Holding SAE has announced that they would like to get paid for their telecom services that they will be providing in North Korea by opening up their own bank and presumably handling subscriber payments and financing of that oh-so-chic $700 3G cell phone.

There were times that, out of my personal budget, payments to Verizon and Visa were some of my biggest monthly expenses (aside from rent).  Looks like Orascom understands this as well.

“This is a big deal, especially as far as North Korea is concerned, because the current banking system is virtually non- existent,” - Marcus Noland of the Peterson Institute for International Economics

3G Launches in Pyongyang

Well, today’s the day - Orascom Telecom is to launch a 3G mobile telephone network today in Pyongyang.  That is despite the fact that cell phones are still technically banned in the country and also despite the fact that the Dear Leader is said to be recovering from a reported stoke.

As you may recall, having cell phones in North Korea is not new as they have had GSM service in operation from 2002 to 2004.  In May 2004, cell phone use was banned due to its connection to a an apparent assassination attempt on Kim Jong-il at a train station in Ryongchon.

The 25-year-license to operate in the reclusive state was granted to Orascom subsidiary CHEO Technology JV Co., which is 75 percent owned by the Egyptian telecommunications firm. The remaining stake is held by state-owned Korea Post and Telecommunications Corp.

Russian Fuel Shipments to Continue

The on-again, off-again relationships used by North Korea to play China off against Russia is a familiar pattern used quite effectively over the years to keep both at arms length and from gobbling up the DPRK as a satellite country.

And with Russia’s announcement that they will continue to supply fuel oil shipments to the DPRK may show that Russia is now “on-again”.

If North Korea follows through on some speculations of wanting to cause a renewed sense of crisis in the Obama administration by testing another Nuke, the relationship with China will definitely be “off-again”.

Other Shoe Drops - Thrown, Actually…

To, put an exclamation point on the legacy of the unpopular outgoing US President, an Iraqi journalist gave the ultimate arabic insult by throwing - and very accurately I might add - both of his shoes at George Bush.

Every action has a reaction and this appears to be the latest and most memorably symbolic reaction to the Iraqi war.

We’ve already opined on the diminished standing of the USA in the world’s eyes, but this is adding insult to injury.

The Maliki government will most likely prosecute this journalist to the fullest extent of whatever laws may apply, but in the end we also know that many other Iraqis probably share this man’s feelings toward the US and specifically, George Bush.

Here in China, some locals are watching with keen interest on what will become of this journalist, for if such a thing happened here, that would most likely be the last we would see of him - ever…

Should we be prepared to see barefoot journalists at all official press conferences now?

DPRK: 99 Luftballons

Release the Balloons!

Release the Balloons!

All this talk of balloons floating over North Korea and all the roil it is causing, reminds me of Nena’s #1 hit single “99 Luftballons” from the 80’s.  It is balloon warfare at it’s best.

The original song in German was a protest against the nuclear missile stand off between western europe and eastern europe; the United States against the Soviet Union.

As Korea is today, Germany was then a divided country.  The song reached #1 in West Germany in 1983.

It portrays a fictional account of how a cloud of balloons mistaken for an aerial missile attack might touch off an apocalyptic war.

Could the recent cloud of balloons over DPRK, each carrying thousands of leaflets, radios and sometimes dollars, cause a war?  Or, could it cause a different type of an end?

Each of those packets contain not just mere words, but information.  And the one thing that an authoritarian regime like North Korea fears the most is that it’s people will start to open their eyes to receive and believe in information from the outside.

Could this be the time when the masses are actually receptive to information?  The military seems to think so and wants it to stop.

Food Delivery Progressing Well

Last week, I met up with some relief workers monitoring the food distribution in the DPRK.  They are on their first set of well-deserved R&R after about 7 weeks of field work.  In general, they report good co-operation with their North Korean counterparts, although they acknowledge that they are working under difficult circumstances and that they have very little control over the political whirlwinds swirling around them.

I found a new appreciation for what they do, as they explained to me the level of detail in paperwork and record keeping that has to be accounted for.  From the port, to the regional distribution point, to the local schools, to the homes.  For the most part, they are riding on top of the existing socialist food ticket distribution system, but the spot checks that are allowed to happen at the lowest level seem exceptional for DPRK.  After checking the attendance and distribution records for a school, if children are listed as absent or unable to receive their food rations, the monitors have asked and been permitted to visit the families.  But, as reported before, the relief workers have to get one week prior approval.

One person from the US mentioned a little boy who literally froze motionless as the relief worker walked by, smiled and waved.  Not only was this the first caucasian this boy had ever seen in real life, but a representative from America - a country he was taught to hate.

The Christian food monitors introduce themselves as bringing food and help from the people of America and all the food shipments have the USAID logo on each bag.

In addition to the UN World Food Program, the following organizations are currently involved with the distribution of food aid in the DPRK: Mercy Corps, Word Vision, Samaritan’s Purse, Global Resource Services, and Christian Friends of Korea.

As winter nears, traveling the icy and mountainous roads will become more difficult.  According to the aid workers, there will need to be a balance with providing enough of a food supply buffer at the distribution centers and having adequate monitoring.

We wish them well and good health during the next couple months.

Winds of Change: Marcus Noland

Here’s an enlightening interview with Marcus Noland, currently a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and an expert on North Korea.  According to Mr. Noland, a growth rate of 7% and an economically different North Korea by 2018 is in the offing:

“I would be very surprised if we sat down 10 years from now and North Korea had not changed significantly,” said Marcus Noland, an expert on the North Korean economy at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington.

The fact that the DPRK is surrounded by high growth countries (China to the north and west, Japan to the east, and South Korea to the south) and continues to have a moribund economy points to the potential for growing 6 to 7 percent every year - as well as a testimony to the real and significant internal problems within Pyongyang.

“The way I would describe North Korea today is that its government is extremely insecure about the domestic political implications of a potential economic change. As a consequence, it is highly risk-averse.”

DPRK is “risk averse”?  Such irony:  What about all the would-be-investors in North Korea: they sure are risk averse as well…

Mr. Noland observed that all authoritarian regimes face problems with succession.  But due to the extreme cult of personality surrounding Kim Jong-il and the lack of an obvious successor, that this regime faces an unusually profound issue with respect to succession.

While acknowledging that most analysts agree on the potential for an emerging collective form of leadership based on the National Defense Commission:

“I am not sure if this outline of a collective form of leadership is sustainable in the long run. I would expect a new situation, perhaps analogous to the situation experienced by South Korea following the assassination of former President Park Chung-hee, where there was a real uncertainty for months about who exactly was running the country before General Chun Doo-hwan eventually emerged as the supreme leader,” he said. “I think something like that is likely to be the case in North Korea in coming years.”

Mr. Noland continues on to discuss two paths to a unified Korea: 1) a slow and protracted consensual coming together of the two sides or 2) obviously some sort of North Korean collapse and absorption by the South ala Germany.

For China’s part, it seems to be preparing for the eventual unification of the Koreas as mentioned in this article about the economic development of the Paektu-san/Changbai-shan region.

NK Refugee Boxer

This New York Times article takes a sobering look into the life of an NK refugee.  It is a story of a young female boxer who left DPRK as a young teenager along with her family and made it to South Korea only to face prejudice and other hardships.

“The photos, and the American hip-hop that blares from speakers, are constant reminders of how much Ms. Choi’s life has changed since her family arrived here four years ago. When she began her boxing career in North Korea, she trained daily under portraits of North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-il.”

The boxer and family apparently were well off in North Korea, but the article tells of new realities of living in the South.

Ms. Choi’s father, who had been a successful businessman in the North, has been unable to find work, and the family has been reduced to living mainly on government handouts to the refugees.

“I sometimes miss my life in North Korea and wonder whether I made the right choice,” he said.

On one hand it is another example that while receiving and integrating refugees from the DPRK is the current reality, this situation is not, in the long run, sustainable nor desirable.  The information that is seeping into DPRK needs to be balanced and refrain from painting a picture of the west and South Korea that is unrealistic.

But, on the other hand, the opportunity and hope that this young boxer does have, thrives because she now lives in a democracy where individual merit and ability are recognized and she can now freely decide for herself what is good and right for her.