The on-again, off-again relationships used by North Korea to play China off against Russia is a familiar pattern used quite effectively over the years to keep both at arms length and from gobbling up the DPRK as a satellite country.
And with Russia’s announcement that they will continue to supply fuel oil shipments to the DPRK may show that Russia is now “on-again”.
If North Korea follows through on some speculations of wanting to cause a renewed sense of crisis in the Obama administration by testing another Nuke, the relationship with China will definitely be “off-again”.
Sakhalin Pipeline
South Korea’s state-run Korea Gas Corp signed a preliminary agreement with Russia’s OAO Gazprom to import 10 billion cubic meters of natural gas over 30 years starting from 2015.
The plan involves the Russians working with the North Koreans to build a transport pipeline from the Sakhalin Island in the Russian Far East, through the DPRK, down to South Korea. If the pipeline plan proves too difficult, a “Plan B” may involve shipping the gas via an ocean route using Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) transport vessels.
The final agreement that details the route and delivery plans will be signed in 2010.
Last year, South Korea imported 25.5 million tons of gas and all of it arrived in a liquefied form by sea. Qatar, Indonesia, Oman and Malaysia accounted for 93 percent of its LNG shipments. The cost of gas delivered via pipelines was $410 a ton in the global market last year, while LNG was $499 a ton, according to the ministry.
It’s interesting the irony of North Korea being witness to a tangible sign of South Korea literally by-passing the North to gain access to and partnership with Russia, a former steward and benefactor of North Korea.
My bet is that the North won’t agree to the pipeline. But, even if they do, it will be too tempting for them to use the pipeline as an object of actual or implied threats.
