Monthly Archive for October, 2008

Winds of Change: Marcus Noland

Published
by
DarkSoju
on October 29, 2008
in Economy and Financial
. 0 Comments

Here’s an enlightening interview with Marcus Noland, currently a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and an expert on North Korea.  According to Mr. Noland, a growth rate of 7% and an economically different North Korea by 2018 is in the offing:

“I would be very surprised if we sat down 10 years from now and North Korea had not changed significantly,” said Marcus Noland, an expert on the North Korean economy at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington.

The fact that the DPRK is surrounded by high growth countries (China to the north and west, Japan to the east, and South Korea to the south) and continues to have a moribund economy points to the potential for growing 6 to 7 percent every year - as well as a testimony to the real and significant internal problems within Pyongyang.

“The way I would describe North Korea today is that its government is extremely insecure about the domestic political implications of a potential economic change. As a consequence, it is highly risk-averse.”

DPRK is “risk averse”?  Such irony:  What about all the would-be-investors in North Korea: they sure are risk averse as well…

Mr. Noland observed that all authoritarian regimes face problems with succession.  But due to the extreme cult of personality surrounding Kim Jong-il and the lack of an obvious successor, that this regime faces an unusually profound issue with respect to succession.

While acknowledging that most analysts agree on the potential for an emerging collective form of leadership based on the National Defense Commission:

“I am not sure if this outline of a collective form of leadership is sustainable in the long run. I would expect a new situation, perhaps analogous to the situation experienced by South Korea following the assassination of former President Park Chung-hee, where there was a real uncertainty for months about who exactly was running the country before General Chun Doo-hwan eventually emerged as the supreme leader,” he said. “I think something like that is likely to be the case in North Korea in coming years.”

Mr. Noland continues on to discuss two paths to a unified Korea: 1) a slow and protracted consensual coming together of the two sides or 2) obviously some sort of North Korean collapse and absorption by the South ala Germany.

For China’s part, it seems to be preparing for the eventual unification of the Koreas as mentioned in this article about the economic development of the Paektu-san/Changbai-shan region.

NK Refugee Boxer

Published
by
DarkSoju
on October 26, 2008
in Human Interest and Refugees
. 0 Comments

This New York Times article takes a sobering look into the life of an NK refugee.  It is a story of a young female boxer who left DPRK as a young teenager along with her family and made it to South Korea only to face prejudice and other hardships.

“The photos, and the American hip-hop that blares from speakers, are constant reminders of how much Ms. Choi’s life has changed since her family arrived here four years ago. When she began her boxing career in North Korea, she trained daily under portraits of North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-il.”

The boxer and family apparently were well off in North Korea, but the article tells of new realities of living in the South.

Ms. Choi’s father, who had been a successful businessman in the North, has been unable to find work, and the family has been reduced to living mainly on government handouts to the refugees.

“I sometimes miss my life in North Korea and wonder whether I made the right choice,” he said.

On one hand it is another example that while receiving and integrating refugees from the DPRK is the current reality, this situation is not, in the long run, sustainable nor desirable.  The information that is seeping into DPRK needs to be balanced and refrain from painting a picture of the west and South Korea that is unrealistic.

But, on the other hand, the opportunity and hope that this young boxer does have, thrives because she now lives in a democracy where individual merit and ability are recognized and she can now freely decide for herself what is good and right for her.

NK Defectors Headed for Japan

Published
by
DarkSoju
on October 25, 2008
in Human Interest, Humanitarian and Refugees
. 0 Comments

This article in Asahi Shinbum is a fascinating glimpse into North Korean Defectors in China seeking asylum in Japan (or, other third-party countries).

The Japanese Embassy in Beijing and the consulate-general in Shenyang have been forced to take in dozens of defectors who have barged through gates and scaled walls seeking refuge.

The existence of the bento, prepared at a Japanese restaurant, is known to few aside from people working in the diplomatic facility.  The food is for “guests” who, as far as the Japanese government is concerned, are not welcome.

The guests are defectors from North Korea who have sought refuge inside the compound.

According to the article, records show that more than 93,000 people went to North Korea between 1959 and 1984 under a repatriation program conducted by the Japanese and North Korean Red Cross societies.  The figure includes 6,600 spouses and children of Japanese nationality.

Both Tokyo and Beijing have bitter memories of an ill-fated attempt by five North Korean defectors to seek refuge at the Shenyang Consulate-General in 2002, an incident which drew an international outcry.

Japanese officials watched impotently as Chinese security officials hauled the defectors from the gates of the compound and took them into custody, provoking criticism of not only the Chinese authorities but also the Japanese Foreign Ministry.

Following the incident, Tokyo and Beijing appear to have agreed to “quietly handle” the repatriation of defectors to Japan and third countries and prevent incidents from catching the public eye.

North Korea: Access Denied

Published
by
DarkSoju
on October 18, 2008
in Pyongyang and Travel
. 1 Comment

We are getting word from multiple sources that non-essential access to North Korea seems to be shutting down.  My own visa application for a visit in late October was denied a few days ago.

Starting from November until the end of the year, very few visitors will be allowed according to sources involved with my visa processing.

Another source reports that during a visit last week, Pyongyang appeared devoid of any visitors

Something seems to be stirring inside the DPRK.  Whether this is some sort of power struggle or something less dramatic is hard to tell at this point.  However, there are some signs of upcoming news to come:

North Korea has ordered its diplomats overseas to get ready for an “important announcement” that may be related to the health of its reclusive leader Kim Jong-Il, a Japanese newspaper (Yomiuri Shimbun) said Saturday.  - AFP article

North Korean Piano Recital

Published
by
DarkSoju
on October 7, 2008
in Music
. 0 Comments

A North Korean pianist living in South Korea, recently gave a recital in Washington DC.  Cheol Woong Kim, a former first pianist of the DPRK State Symphony Orchestra, performed selections such as “Arirang” and “Amazing Grace” in the State Department’s ornate Benjamin Franklin room to standing ovations.

“Seeing as how I am performing at the State Department today, I think that my next performance could be in space,” he said, speaking through an interpreter.

South Korea and Russia Sign $90B Gas Agreement

Published
by
DarkSoju
on October 1, 2008
in Energy
. 1 Comment
Sakhalin Pipeline

Sakhalin Pipeline

South Korea’s state-run Korea Gas Corp signed a preliminary agreement with Russia’s OAO Gazprom to import 10 billion cubic meters of natural gas over 30 years starting from 2015.

The plan involves the Russians working with the North Koreans to build a transport pipeline from the Sakhalin Island in the Russian Far East, through the DPRK, down to South Korea.  If the pipeline plan proves too difficult, a “Plan B” may involve shipping the gas via an ocean route using Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) transport vessels.

The final agreement that details the route and delivery plans will be signed in 2010.

Last year, South Korea imported 25.5 million tons of gas and all of it arrived in a liquefied form by sea. Qatar, Indonesia, Oman and Malaysia accounted for 93 percent of its LNG shipments. The cost of gas delivered via pipelines was $410 a ton in the global market last year, while LNG was $499 a ton, according to the ministry.

It’s interesting the irony of North Korea being witness to a tangible sign of South Korea literally by-passing the North to gain access to and partnership with Russia, a former steward and benefactor of North Korea.

My bet is that the North won’t agree to the pipeline.  But, even if they do, it will be too tempting for them to use the pipeline as an object of actual or implied threats.