“Every major intelligence agency across the world does the exercise. Call it the ‘hit by the bus’ scenario. If leader X of important/sensitive/unstable country Y drops dead tomorrow, what happens? Who takes over? How might that change things? For some countries, the exercise is simple. For others, it’s murky and complicated. Then there’s North Korea.” - www.time.com
Well, hand it to North Korea, Kim Jong-Il has again set the news media chattering away about the future of the DPRK and the implications of a nuclear North Korea without the “Dear Leader” at the helm.
Timing is impecable: all eyes were on the fashionable military parade to see if the Chairman would show. When he didn’t, it touched off a firestorm of speculation and North Korea arm-chair analysts had a field day.
Supporters at the DPRK Women's Soccer Game in China
After vowing to end a string of no score draws in previous North vs. South football matches, the North Korean football team was the first to score a goal at the FIFA World Cup Qualifier held in Shanghai last night. But, after few minutes the South Korean team scored a goal to tie things up. Final score was a 1:1 draw.
Here is some details of the match and another.
Here is a well-written book review of “Jia: A Novel” by Hyejin Kim. The reviewer is Christian Caryl who works as the Tokyo Bureau Chief of Newsweek. The review itself provides some very insightful views of North Korea and the book looks like a worthy read.
Today, North Korea (DPRK) marks it’s 60th anniversary of it’s founding on Sept 9, 1948. To cap the celebrations, the North holds a large-scale military parade to display unity and military might.
We are all familiar with those menacing-looking, goose-stepping soldiers marching in incredible unison. What many people don’t know is that these guys have been practicing those high steps since Spring. I watched on with fascination at their dedication and the droning of their incessant cadence. Everyone had a number and whoever was out-of-line or out-of-step was rebuked.
It’s interesting the timing of a barrage of news coverage on rumors of the health of the “Dear Leader”. There was one from the left-field, as a Japanese “expert” opined that the “Dear Leader” had died in 2003. Then another more plausible one from South Korea stating Chinese doctors were in the North to treat high-level officials. CNN and many other reliable sources are starting to pick up on this chatter. Undoubtedly, there will be many eyes scouring the videos of today’s military parade for any clues.
My personal guess is that he won’t show.
What will the next 60 years hold?
Many people have said that perhaps more than one generation on both the North and the South would have to pass away before there is a true reconciliation and possible re-unification.
Since an average generation (time between generations) should be about 30 years, we should already be into our 3rd generation after the Korean War. Those born around 1948 (1st gen) would likely have kids around 1978 (2nd gen) who will likely be starting to have kids around 2008 (3rd gen).
As for the old-farts that still remember the war - they are fading fast. If you were fighting age in 1948, you would be well past 75 years old now. Remember, Kim Jong-Il was only about 7 years old at the founding of DPRK.
One could take a cynical view and wonder if, after generations apart, the Korean people could ever re-unite. I prefer to take the optimistic point of view and think that we are long over due for a breakthrough. I’m all in for something big to start happening in the near future.
All girls military band
Here’s a not-so-surprising item about differences in sexes between North and South.
In a bit of a cynical nutshell:
- In South Korea, women act like men while men are uncommitted, but like sex.
- In North Korea, men are men: they are less considerate, but at least they take responsibility for their having sex
All I know is that NK girls look hot in their military skirts…
Concert Hall fountain overlooking the "Dear Leader"
The plan was to play beautiful music where marvelous football was played some 42 years ago. But, the bankers wouldn’t have it - spoilsports. The Straits Times is reporting that due to concerns about venues and financing, a tour by the North Korean state symphony, scheduled for this month, will be postponed until 2009.
The planned concert was to be held in Middlesbrough, UK. Middlesbrough is noteworthly to North Koreans as this small town of 140,000 residents bonded with and cheered on the underdog North Korean football team to a stunning victory over the highly favored team from Italy during the first round of the 1966 Word Cup.
Earlier in the year, after a wave of good feelings that followed the New York Philharmonic’s visit to Pyongyang in Februrary, there were hopes of a reciprocal tour by the Noth Korean state symphony to the United States. However, hopes faded fast as the political climate in the US cooled due to on-going difficulties during the 6-party nuclear disarmament talks.
Rural village in the country side
“A new agreement with the government now gives the WFP ‘the best access and working conditions’ it has ever enjoyed, (Tony) Banbury said, allowing the agency to deploy more foreign staff than ever before. For the first time, the WFP is using Korean speakers and more monitors outside the capital.”
According to a variety of our in-country sources and news reports, we can confirm that the World Food Program (WFP) is having unprecedented access in North Korea.
Although the WFP has to let the North Korean government know about the monitoring plan on a weekly basis, the organization seems confident that the daily monitoring spot checks are meaningful and accurate.
This type of monitoring is important as the proposed plan from WFP is extremely large (and expensive) as it tries to reach 6.3 million people and will cost more than $500 million over the next year.
“More than 4,500 people have been exposed as spies for the North since the peninsula was divided in 1948″, officials at the South Korean Defence Security Command said.
Whether warranted or not, there’s anxiety in South Korea of more possible North Korean spies in their midst. North Korean defectors already having a difficult time adjusting to life in the South have yet another headache to worry about as businesses, employers and friends become more cautious.
There are more than 14,000 North Koreans who have resettled in the South after the Korean War. Additionally, there are more than 2,500 North Korean refugees who have left for other host countries.
But, North Korean refugees that have already been granted legal residence in South Korea apparently are not allowed to seek asylum in other western countries.
As for the South Korean Military, they seem to be following up on 50 spy suspects and 170 leftist forces of their own. Times like this, you also have to beware of McCarthyism.
North Korea accused US and South Korea of engaging in “aggressive” spy flights.
We know US and SK perform routine spy flights, so there’s not much new news here.
But, what’s interesting to me is that they called out 110 were from the US and 70 were from South Korea. I wonder how they know? Trajectories? Aircraft types?
It seems to be the 10th anniversary of the test-firing of a Taepodong-1 which DPRK claims is a satellite rocket launch platform. Here’s the text of the official radio broadcast.
Despite claims of success in the broadcast text, on September 1, 1998, the rocket launch apparently failed and the satellite called Kwangmyŏngsŏng (”Bright Light Star”) has never been seen in orbit.
The satellite appears to have been a clone of a circa 1970 Chinese Dong Fang Hong 1 satellite. Which itself was a clone of a circa 1962 US Telstar satellite.
The launch platform was a Taepodong-1, which is a heavily modified three stage SCUD-based missile.